This past quarter saw an interesting combination of multiple price increases as well as decreased market capacity.
As mentioned in our Paper Market Unfolded Q4 2025, 2026 started with several key suppliers in the uncoated freesheet (UFS) market announcing price increases. This was due to several factors, from mill closures to tariff-related reductions in inventory/restocking from several large imports. Boise and Sylvamo moved back to an allocation model, confirming that available supply is limited. When mills enter an allocation phase, merchants and printers are only allowed to purchase based on their previous buying history.
On top of these price increases announced in January, we are seeing a second wave of uncoated freesheet increases as we enter May.
- Boise announced an additional 5% increase effective June 1st
- Domtar announced another price increase of 4-6% effective June 15th
- Sustana announced another price increase of 4-8% effective June 15th
Additional increases from other producers have already been announced and are continuing to be published. We expect all major uncoated mills to follow suit with an increase.
At the end of the first quarter, Sappi North America announced a 6% price increase on new and unconfirmed graphic orders. Additionally, Sappi’s Cloquet mill also moved to allocation. Following suit, Billerud announced a price increase of 6-8%, effective May 18th, and ND Paper announced a 6% increase effective June 1st.
While we don’t anticipate further price increases as the year progresses, conflicts across the globe can play a large role in this change. We are in frequent contact with the mills to stay well ahead of any future changes and share them with you.
Mill Updates
International Paper aims to acquire North Pacific Paper Company (NORPAC) for $360MM. NORPAC is a U.S.-based paper manufacturer located in Washington State. It accounts for 1 million tons of containerboard and other grades annually.
International Paper announced that it would convert the second machine at its Riverdale mill to containerboard and exit the uncoated freesheet business in the second quarter of 2026. With this transition and the August closure of Pixelle Specialty Solutions’ Chillicothe mill, it is anticipated that uncoated freesheet operating rates will rise to 92% in 2026.
Uncoated Freesheet
Uncoated freesheet continues to be impacted, currently experiencing its second round of price increase announcements this year due to all key players being tight. The market is seemingly being shaped by permanent machine closures, mill conversions to packaging grades, and reduced capacity. The forecasted operating rates are projected to be high, in the low to mid 90’s for the rest of the year.
Currently, some mill lead times are extending to September and beyond for orders, though this varies among suppliers. Therefore, it is important to talk with your SPC rep. SPC can explore options to help mitigate cost increases for clients who have large-scale programmatic work or projects with a paper lead time of 90 days and also assisting to have paper available for your projects.
Coated Freesheet
Coated paper supplies have also tightened. Currently, Sappi is on allocation, and other mills are filling machine capacity amid production challenges and scheduled downtime. With capacity already so thrifty, even a single issue or one mill being on allocation can create significant disruptions, whereas in the past, such challenges would often be absorbed by existing capacity.
Coated market operating rates vary greatly from the mid-eighties to mid-nineties, with some machines currently selling out monthly.
Lead times remain inconsistent across suppliers so now, more than ever, it is important to plan ahead with your SPC Rep.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Coated and uncoated markets are in a notably tighter position in the early months of 2026. Overall demand remains moderate, with mills maintaining strong pricing discipline and lean inventories. While we do not expect the market to experience panic conditions, it has shifted away from the previously comfortable and oversupplied environment.
We will continue to watch paper mill activity and related inventory levels closely to further understand how the balance of 2026 will play out.
SPC is hosting an exclusive roundtable discussion featuring representatives from Midland, Sappi, and Sustana. Our expert panel will discuss their outlook on the paper market, followed by an open Q&A session. This virtual event is scheduled for Thursday, May 28th, at 1:30 PM. Please contact your SPC Sales Rep for details on how to register.
